The Monday Night Analysis

Ok, first off, yes, I do hate the Indianapolis Colts, and I think that there have been times when I have let my unbridled hatred of this team cloud my handicapping judgement. However, I hate the Pittsburgh Steelers almost as much and I am just going to do some straight up unbiased analysis on a Monday Night Game that I will watch from start to finish.

First off, Indy is 10-0. I think I heard somewhere that they are trying to break the record of the 72 Dolphins? I might be wrong about that, someone may want to check….

Ben Roethlisberger is returning tonight, and his presence makes the Steelers instantly better than last week. They say he is healthy, which I believe mainly because it’s been 4 weeks since the scope, and he has been held back about as long as he can. The interesting thing about Big Ben is he has only lost to ONE team in his career, the Patriots. This is by far the best defense Indy has played all year and I see a few things happening tonight.

1. Manning will be blitzed often. You will not see much zone coverage tonight, and this crap of the Colts making every 3rd down will come to a quick end.

2. Edgerrin James will not be a factor tonight. The Steelers only give up about 80 rushing yards per game, and James will be shut down. If he can be active as a receiver he might be worth something tonight, but I predict alot of Dominic Rhodes in passing downs and Edge polishing his gold teeth on the sidelines.

3. Dallas Clark will be huge again. Polamalu is a blitzing safety better at stopping the run. If he gets stuck with Clark in man to man coverage Manning can exploit this.

4. Special teams will decide this game. The Steelers have a great kicker and great return men. Randle El can give the Colts kick coverage fits if the Steelers can stay away from any blocks that even resemble being illegal, as the Colts have had the benefit in every game this year of getting all the calls. This will not change at home, especially on a Monday night.

5. The Steelers offense will hold a decided edge in TOP. Willie Parker will be starting, and he will be spelled by Bettis and Staley. Indy has not faced a goal line offense this good all year, I predict 2 or 3 4th and shorts get converted. If it’s 2 of them, the third one will set up a play action to rookie tight end Heath Miller, who is the key to the Steelers offense tonight.

6. Hines Ward will torch whoever is guarding him. After the field day Chad Johnson and Chris Henry had last week vs the undersized Colts D-Backfield, Ward will chew them up. Look for them to look for Heath Miller in the end zone a couple of times tonight, he is quickly becoming a Roethlisberger security blanket.

Prediction-

This is the type of team that can expose Indy’s weaknesses. I believe a running clock and a tough defense will be the Colt’s undoing. If they win, it will be by no more than a field goal. I don’t think they will win, though. Bob Griese, Larry Csonka and Don Shula, POP YOUR CORKS!!!!

Steelers 23
Indy 20

I Think I am Well Enough to Come Back

First off hats off to Indy for their Monday night blowout last week. They were able to take advantage of a mistake by Corey Dillon and a horrid defensive effort. The real test for them comes the next two weeks when they face Cincy on the road and Pittsburgh the following Monday. I can only hope a Pats team that is half healthy can get a chance to redeem themselves in January.

Moving on, a little analysis for tonight’s Monday Night Game. This game is a desperation game for Philly. They have already played their first game without TO, they know what they need to do, they are playing a Dallas team that thoroughly embarrassed them a few weeks ago. Expect constant pressure from the Eagles D, which will cause more than few Dallas “3 and outs” and a couple of turnovers. Final score…Philly 23 Dallas 10.

Although they made Gus Frerotte look like Dan Fouts yesterday, the Patriots defense FINALLY made some plays when they needed to. Ellis Hobbs is making Pats Fans every ask “Why were you behind Duane Starks?”. Tedy Bruschi was playing like a maniac and I believe a key pass defense on a third down that saved a touchdown was a turning point in the game. It was almost like the defense realized “hey, wow, we actually CAN knock down a pass”!

The New York Yankees are reportedly close to re-signing Hideki Matsui, which they have to do before midnight tomorrow or they won’t be able to speak with him until after May 1st. I think an announcement will come out later on today or tomorrow announcing a new deal. In other Yankee news, the Yanks have interest in free agent outfielder Brian Giles and the feeling is mutual. There is talk he could play center, but I would prefer a Gary Sheffield trade to anywhere for anything, put Giles in right and get Milton Bradley or Brad Wilkerson to play center. That to me would put a spark in the outfield and in the lineup that is desperately needed and give the Yanks that look of an NL Style team, which was a key component to their dominance in the late 90’s. Sprinkle a signing of BJ Ryan as the heir apparent and new setup man for Mo Rivera, get a couple of fill in the pen guys that have the ability to pitch and you have your self another AL East title and a much better chance to do something in the postseason. If only these Ichiro trade rumors had some legs, , now THAT would be an outfield. Can you imagine?

I am beginning to believe the team that will give New York the toughest competition next year in the AL East will be Toronto. If they sign AJ Burnett to be the second guy behind a healthy Roy Halladay and they get another bat in there, they have enough talent to bump a Boston team from the second place perch. I was reading the employment times yesterday and saw this help wanted ad-
“Are You the Right Person? Do you constantly make decisions that are second guessed by your boss? Has he or she ever pulled the plug on a business deal you want to make because they don’t trust your judgment? Are able to handle criticism in your company newsletter? Are you able to say “Yes, sir” with a smile? Then you might be the person we are looking for! We have a current opening as executive secretary…err..general manager of our baseball club. Benefits include, health insurance, 401k and a free subscription to the Boston Globe and Ny Times. Interested applicants may apply at Yawkey Way in Boston. Open house will be on Thursday from 3-6 at the Cask N Flaggon. All are welcome to apply!

That is all for today. Plays for tonight…

Philly -2 1/2
Under 40
Princeton -3 1/2 (NCAA Hoops)

Back from Vacation

Sorry it has been so long between blog posts but I needed a rest. The Yankees drained me physically and emotionally this year, and the Patriots are close to doing the same, especially if they decide to lose to Indy Monday Night. I may never use the internet again if I watch Tom Brady lose to Peyton Manning. I hate the Colts that much. I really do. Why you ask? First off I have never liked the franchise anyways. Any franchise that packs up its offices in the middle of the night and skips town doesn’t do much for me. Then they drafted the college athlete I loved to hate, Peyton Manning. Yes, I have laughed at Peyton’s misfortune on many occasions, including his losses to Florida in college, losing the Heisman Trophy to Charles Woodson (especially when a split second before they made the announcement he leaned forward in his seat like he was getting ready to stand up and accept the award. Instant classic). Losing his first playoff games Tennessee, the Dolphins and Jets. Losing in the playoffs thereafter to New England, which is on top of losing every regular season game to New England since 2001. Then Saturday night, while having his number retired by his old alma mater, Steve Spurrier rolls into town and knocks off the Vols, giving South Carolina their first EVER win against Tennessee. Coincidence? I think not. I call it “foreshadowing”. It’s a little reminder that Peyton sometimes just can’t get over the hump. The Patriots are that hump.

Yes I know, the Pats aren’t playing well and they are banged up. If I remember correctly though, they were just as banged up in the playoffs last year and the point spread was about the same. Yes, they sleep-walked through the first three quarters against Buffalo. Yes a rookie offensive lineman will be matched up against Dwight Freeney. I don’t care. The Colts will not win this football game. No way. No how. 82% of the betting public is on Indy right now on Monday night. How often does the one sided favorite win on Monday night? Not often would be the correct answer. As long as Tom Brady can walk, the Colts will not beat the Patriots. Don’t be lulled to sleep by the div 1-AA schedule that Indy has played this year. Don’t buy into the bye week gives them an extra week to prepare. Dungy gave them 5 days off and they didn’t analyze game film until Tuesday. I am not criticizing this coaching move, I actually like it, but you are going to hear from people all week and weekend saying “The Colts have had 2 weeks to prepare!”. They did, but they only used one. In the words of Flavor Flav…. “Don’t Believe the Hype!”

Take Louisville -20.5 tonight. Take it now before it goes up over 21. Louisville is a monster at home. Pitt has won 3 in a row. When was the last time Wannstedt won 4 in a row at anything? Exactly.