What The Point Spread Can Tell You(Even Though You Don’t Gamble)

It was 1993, and the Patriots had come in to the month of December with one win and eleven losses. Rookie quarterback Drew Bledsoe had been injured for a few games, and going into a game against Cincinnati at home, it was beginning to look like the Patriots might be moved to St Louis. However, some hope was lying inside the numbers, the betting numbers that is. Although many don’t gamble (because it is illegal outside of Nevada), a point spread and a team’s record against it can tell you a lot about a team’s chances of improvement, and even give you a peek into the team’s future. In 1993, although the Patriots were 1-11 overall, they had a record against the spread of 7-5, which is remarkable. For those who may remember, the Pats played a ton of close games that season, and had they had a reliable kicker from game one (in other words not Scott Sisson), they may have had a much better won/loss record. Many were surprised that the Patriots won their last 4 games, but those who followed the lines realized the Patriots were due, and although the Patriots finished with a 5-11 overall record, they finished with a very respectable 10-6 record against the spread. They didn’t move to St Louis, and we all know what happened from there. With those stats in mind, what can be found out about this year’s stretch run? Will a team with a rough record play spoiler? Will a team that everyone thinks is good make the playoffs and be one and done? Let’s take a look at one of each and see how it does with three games left on the schedule.

The Spoiler-Kansas City

Kansas City has been thrust into the AFC East race since week one. No, I know they play in the AFC West, but it was the Chiefs Bernard Pollard who changed the complexion of the division when his hit put Tom Brady out for the year. Although the Chiefs are 2-11 overall, they have a respectable 7-6 record against the spread. They have one game left on the schedule that will be very important, a home game against the Miami Dolphins on December 21^st. A loss by Miami there (who is 6-7 ATS on the season, 8-5 overall) could make the AFC East a two team race between the Pats and Jets. Really, who is going to pick the Chiefs to beat a team in the thick of a playoff race? I am, because it happens every year. If Kansas City finishes with a mark of .500 or better against the spread, they could be a sleeper team for next season as well. Besides if the Chiefs eliminate the Dolphins, the circle of karma is complete, right?

The Fraud- Denver Broncos

Of all the teams that are currently in playoff position, the one with the worst against the spread record is Denver. Even though they currently lead the AFC West with an 8-5 record and are virtual locks to clinch, that does not necessarily mean good things for the Broncos. The Broncos have a paltry 4-8-1 record against the spread (and the push was courtesy of Ed Hochuli), and the most disturbing trend is that the Broncos are 0-6-1 against the spread at home this season. A division leader who hasn’t covered a spread at home one time? A team that plays the Raiders at home can’t cover a spread? Remember, the Broncos by winning the division will host a playoff game in the wild card round, and it may be a case where home field advantage (even with that altitude everyone talks about) won’t be enough to help them advance. This also sets things up well for the Baltimore Ravens,because if the playoffs ended today and things hold serve, Baltimore’s first round playoff match-up will be with…Denver (based on Denver’s head to head record against the Jets deciding seeding). Oh , and Baltimore is 10-3 against the spread this year and 9-4 overall. Good luck Bronco fans, you are going to need it.

Carl Peterson is a Classless act.

More times than not when a player publicly expresses their feeling slighted by their teams’ management, fans do not side with the player. Of course, in most instances those public statements revolve around a contract dispute, playing time, or wanting to be more involved in some aspect of the team. However, in the case of Tony Gonzalez, fans are more apt to side with the player.

Gonzalez has been one of the premier, if not the best, tight ends in the NFL since his arrival in 1997. During his 12 years in Kansas City, Gonzalez has set the NFL record for receptions by a tight end, receiving yards by a tight end, and touchdown receptions by a tight end, along with numerous Chiefs’ records, 9 Pro-Bowl appearances and 8 All-Pro selections. More than that, Gonzalez has been one of the few good guys in a league known more for its spotlight starving players and notable arrests. He has been loyal to a team that has been to the playoffs just 3 times and had 5 winning seasons during his tenure. You hardly, if ever, heard him complain about the situation in Kansas City, throw a teammate under the bus, or chastize the coaching staff and management for not getting better talent around.

So, when it was reported a few days ago that the 32 year-old asked management to trade him to Super Bowl contender, most saw it as a earnest player trying to get one last shot, a shot he knew he was not going to get with a very young and rebuilding Chiefs team. Even though management wanted “the right price” in exchange for their talented tight end, most thought that out of respect for his service to the Chiefs, he would be dealt and given the chance to win a title before his career winds down.

According to an interview he had with FOXsports.com, Gonzalez talked to Chiefs GM Carl Peterson about the possibilities of a trade on the eve of the trade deadline. Gonzalez had asked Peterson if he thought they could get a deal done if the Chiefs were offered a 4th round pick, to which Peterson said no and spoke of getting a package commensurate to what the Giants got for Jeremy Shockey, which included a second round pick. Apparently Gonzalez told Peterson that no one was going to trade a second rounder for a 32-year old tight end and Peterson appeared to settle on getting a third round pick.

And he was right. Despite Peterson’s claim to Gonzalez that he would make a deal for a third rounder, no deal was done, and it is hard to understand why. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Packers offered a third rounder to the Chiefs, but Peterson set the price at a second rounder, something the Pack were unwilling to do as they would have been on the hook for the remaining 3 ½ years of Gonzalez’s deal, worth just under $20 million.

From the Chiefs standpoint, it seems odd that they would not take the third rounder given that Gonzalez’s trade value is not likely to increase as he gets into his mid-30’s. A third round offer this year may turn into a fourth round offer next year, a fifth the year after and so on.

From Gonzalez’s standpoint it is a kick in the teeth. He has been loyal to a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1993 and has a GM who has somehow kept his job for 18 years despite not fielding a consistent winner. Unfortunately for Gonzalez, he has 3 years left on his current deal and is unlikely to be dealt if Peterson insists on fleecing another team.

However, Gonzalez did not callout Peterson, threaten to hold out or put into anyone’s mind any measure of doubt that he will do anything other than what he has for the past 12 seasons–just go out and play. He said:

“But you know what? I can’t cry about it. If anything, this has motivated me even more. I’m a Chief, will be happy to be a Chief and will bust my butt for the Chiefs. I was never not happy being a Chief. I just wanted the chance to spend my last couple of years winning a title, not rebuilding. But I’m here to help rebuild, I’ll work with all our young guys and get after it like I always have.”

While Gonzalez remains classy, the Chiefs, in particular Peterson, showed a severe lack of class. They got a fair offer for a player who will be on the decline in the near future as he will turn 33 in the off season and has been nothing short of a class act and outstanding football player, and yet they will not return the respect and loyalty and allow him to go after something he will not be able to in Kansas City–a shot at a title.

KC Chiefs Interview

The founder of ArrowheadPride.com, Chris Thorman, joined me tonight to talk about the Chiefs. Very good interview, and my opinion of Ty Law joining the Pats has now changed because of it.

You can listen here or at the red Talkshoe Widget at the top of the page (just click the gray arrow and it will give you a list 0f interviews to choose from, this one is right on top). Enjoy!

Tuesday Quick Hitters

Adrian Beltre and Stephen Drew each hit for the cycle yesterday…..first time in 88 years that two players hit for the cycle on the same day.

Dustin Pedroia helped the Sox get past the Orioles.

Cliff Lee picked up win number 20 as the Indians dropped the ChiSox into a tie with the Minnesota Twins.

The Diamondbacks picked up some help over the weekend as they beat St. Louis and remain 2.5 games up on the Dodgers.

Ben Sheets went down with an injury as the Brewers fell to the Mets.

A-Rod and the Yankees, hoping to somehow make the playoffs, outlasted the Tigers.

Despite 4 turnovers, UCLA continued the upset trend from this weekend.

Clemson, Pitt, and Va. Tech were the other top 25 teams going down at the hands of the unranked.

Number 2 ranked OSU could be in trouble as they head into their meeting with USC on the 13th.

Also hit by the injury bug were Auburn and Mizzou while 2 OU players were reportedly involved in an altercation.

Outside of Mizzou/Illinois and Utah/Michigan, the rest of the weekend was filled primarily with blowouts.

Maine was on the losing end of one of those blowouts.

Both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are set to start week 1…….we think, and the fans for their respective teams hope so.

The Ravens handed the keys to the offense to a rookie.

The Oakland Raiders continue to stockpile discarded receivers and are possibly interested in another.

Former Pats S Eugene Wilson was released by the Bucs….could Minny be his next stop?

Ocho Cinco says he is good to go.

Jags T Richard Collier is fighting for his life after being shot early Tuesday morning.

The Pats sign CB Deltha O’Neal who was released early by the Bengals.

Initial injury reports for the upcoming Redskins/Giants game are out…..by the way, isn’t it about time for a name change controversy in DC?

The Lions added Rudi Johnson to their backfield.

Meanwhile in KC, players their “feel good” going into the opener….translation: they heard the rumor Brady may be out and Matt Cassel is still the back up.

The four letter network released their “experts'” picks.

New England fans had a few questions about the Pats’ recent roster moves.